Projected tropical cyclone genesis and seasonality changes in the Northern Hemisphere under a warming climate
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Widana Arachchige, Erandani Lakshani
Zhou, Wen
Toumi, Ralf
Wang, Xuan
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The impact of global warming on future tropical cyclone (TC) development is substantial; however, the predictability of TC genesis remains uncertain. In this study, we investigate projected changes in TC genesis on a regional scale over the North Atlantic (NA) and western North Pacific (WNP) ocean basins, focusing on TC seasonality through bias-corrected model simulations. Our study unveils a weakening of peak TC genesis (August-October; ASO) at lower latitudes under a high-emission scenario, along with a strengthening of TC peak (July-September; JAS) at higher latitudes. Most importantly, positive vertical velocity (ω) in the mid-troposphere (500 hPa) plays a dominant role in weakening the TC peak in the tropics, while weak vertical wind shear (VWS) in the subtropics facilitates TC development. Our study elucidates the impact of climate change on the regional environment and the ensuing possible changes in TC seasonality, offering essential insights into future projected TC genesis in the Northern Hemisphere.
Date Issued
2025-07-31
Date Acceptance
2025-07-09
Citation
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2025, 8
ISSN
2397-3722
Publisher
Nature Portfolio
Journal / Book Title
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Volume
8
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2025 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, which permits any non-commercial use, sharing, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if you modified the licensed material. You do not have permission under this licence to share adapted material derived from this article or parts of it. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.
Subjects
ATLANTIC
BAY
BENGAL
CMIP5
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
MODEL
PACIFIC
Physical Sciences
POTENTIAL INDEX
Science & Technology
SHIFTS
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
288
Date Publish Online
2025-07-31