Spatio-temporal marked point process model to understand forest fires in the Mediterranean basin
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Published version
Author(s)
de Rivera, Óscar Rodríguez
Espinosa, Juncal
Madrigal, Javier
Blangiardo, Marta
López-Quílez, Antonio
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Understanding and predicting forest fires have proved a highly difficult endeavour, which requires extending and adapting complex models used in different fields. Here, we apply a marked point process approach, commonly used in ecology, which uses multiple Gaussian random fields to represent dynamics of Mediterranean forest fires in a spatio-temporal distribution model. Inference is carried out using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) with inlabru, an accessible and computationally efficient approach for Bayesian hierarchical modelling, which is not yet widely used in species distribution models. Using the marked point process approach, intensity of forest fires and dispersion were predicted using socioeconomic factors and environmental and fire-related variables. This demonstrates the advantage of complex model components in accounting for spatio-temporal dynamics that are not explained by environmental variables. Introduction of spatio-temporal marked point process can provide a more realistic perspective of a system, which is of particular importance for a practical and impact-focused worldwide problem such as forest fires.
Date Issued
2025-09-01
Date Acceptance
2024-02-25
Citation
Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, 2025, 30 (3), pp.700-729
ISSN
1085-7117
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Start Page
700
End Page
729
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics
Volume
30
Issue
3
Copyright Statement
© 2024 The Author(s) Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
License URL
Identifier
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13253-024-00617-x
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2024-03-29