Strong spatial embedding of social networks generates non-standard epidemic dynamics independent of degree distribution and clustering
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Published version
Author(s)
Haw, David J
Read, Jonathan M
Pung, Rachael M
Riley, Steven
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Some directly transmitted human pathogens such as influenza and measles generate sustained exponential growth in incidence, and have a high peak incidence consistent with the rapid depletion of susceptible individuals. Many do not. While a prolonged exponential phase typically arises in traditional disease-dynamic models,current quantitative descriptions of non-standard epidemic profiles are either abstract, phenomenological or rely on highly skewed off-spring distributions in network models. Here, we create large socio-spatial networks to represent contact behaviour using human population density data, a previously developed fitting algorithm, and gravity-like mobility kernels. We define a basic reproductive number R0 for this system analogous to that used for compartmental mod-els. Controlling for R0, we then explore networks with a household-workplace structure in which between-household contacts can be formed with varying degrees of spatial correlation, determined by a single parameter from the gravity-like kernel. By varying this single parameter and simulating epidemic spread, we are able to identify how more frequent local movement can lead to strong spatial cor-relation and thus induce sub-exponential outbreak dynamics with lower, later epidemic peaks. Also, the ratio of peak height to finalsize was much smaller when movement was highly spatially correlated. We investigate the topological properties of our networks via a generalized clustering coefficient that extends beyond immediate neighbourhoods, identifying very strong correlations between 4th order clustering and non-standard epidemic dynamics. Our results motivate the joint observation of incidence and socio-spatial human behaviour during epidemics that exhibit non-standard incidence pat-terns.
Date Issued
2020-09-08
Date Acceptance
2020-08-06
Citation
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of USA, 2020, 117 (38), pp.23636-23642
ISSN
0027-8424
Publisher
National Academy of Sciences
Start Page
23636
End Page
23642
Journal / Book Title
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of USA
Volume
117
Issue
38
Copyright Statement
© 2020 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
License URL
Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
National Institute for Health Research
National Institute for Health Research
Wellcome Trust
Medical Research Council (MRC)
National Institute for Health Research
Identifier
https://www.pnas.org/content/117/38/23636
Grant Number
MR/K010174/1B
HPRU-2012-10080
HPRU-2012-10064
200861/Z/16/Z
MR/R015600/1
NIHR200927
Subjects
clustering
epidemics
networks
subexponential
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2020-09-08