Evidence of bias in the Eurovision song contest: modelling the votes using Bayesian hierarchical models
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Published version
Author(s)
Blangiardo, M
Baio, G
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The Eurovision Song Contest is an annual musical competition held among active members of the European
Broadcasting Union since 1956. The event is televised live across Europe. Each participating country
presents a song and receive a vote based on a combination of tele-voting and jury. Over the years, this
has led to speculations of tactical voting, discriminating against some participants and thus inducing bias
in the final results. In this paper we investigate the presence of positive or negative bias (which may
roughly indicate favouritisms or discrimination) in the votes based on geographical proximity, migration
and cultural characteristics of the participating countries through a Bayesian hierarchical model. Our analysis
found no evidence of negative bias, although mild positive bias does seem to emerge systematically,
linking voters to performers.
Broadcasting Union since 1956. The event is televised live across Europe. Each participating country
presents a song and receive a vote based on a combination of tele-voting and jury. Over the years, this
has led to speculations of tactical voting, discriminating against some participants and thus inducing bias
in the final results. In this paper we investigate the presence of positive or negative bias (which may
roughly indicate favouritisms or discrimination) in the votes based on geographical proximity, migration
and cultural characteristics of the participating countries through a Bayesian hierarchical model. Our analysis
found no evidence of negative bias, although mild positive bias does seem to emerge systematically,
linking voters to performers.
Date Issued
2014-10-01
Date Acceptance
2014-03-26
Citation
Journal of Applied Statistics, 2014, 41 (10), pp.2312-2322
ISSN
1360-0532
Publisher
Taylor & Francis
Start Page
2312
End Page
2322
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Applied Statistics
Volume
41
Issue
10
Copyright Statement
© 2014 The Author(s). This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative
Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction
in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. The moral rights of the named author(s) have been asserted.
Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction
in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. The moral rights of the named author(s) have been asserted.
License URL
Subjects
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Statistics & Probability
Mathematics
STATISTICS & PROBABILITY
Bayesian hierarchical models
ordinal logistic regression
Eurovision song contest
EUROPE
Publication Status
Published