Shaping sustainable harvest boundaries for marine populations despite estimation bias
OA Location
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Biased estimates of population status are a pervasive conservation problem. This problem has plagued assessments of commercial exploitation of marine species and can threaten the sustainability of both populations and fisheries. We develop a computer-intensive approach to minimize adverse effects of persistent estimation bias in assessments by optimizing operational harvest measures (harvest control rules) with closed-loop simulation of resource-management feedback systems: management strategy evaluation. Using saithe (Pollachius virens), a bottom water, apex predator in the North Sea, as a real-world case study, we illustrate the approach by first diagnosing robustness of the existing harvest control rule and then optimizing it through propagation of biases (overestimated stock abundance and underestimated fishing pressure) along with select process and observation uncertainties. Analyses showed that severe biases lead to overly optimistic catch limits and then progressively magnify the amplitude of catch fluctuation, thereby posing unacceptably high overharvest risks. Consistent performance of management strategies to conserve the resource can be achieved by developing more robust control rules. These rules explicitly account for estimation bias through a computational grid search for a set of control parameters (threshold abundance that triggers management action, Btrigger, and target exploitation rate, Ftarget) that maximize yield while keeping stock abundance above a precautionary level. When the biases become too severe, optimized control parameters—for saithe, raising Btrigger and lowering Ftarget—would safeguard against a overharvest risk (<3.5% probability of stock depletion) and provide short-term stability in catch limit (<20% year-to-year variation), thereby minimizing disruption to fishing communities. The precautionary approach to fine-tuning adaptive risk management through management strategy evaluation offers a powerful tool to better shape sustainable harvest boundaries for exploited resource populations when estimation bias persists. By explicitly accounting for emergent sources of uncertainty, our proposed approach ensures effective conservation and sustainable exploitation of living marine resources even under profound uncertainty.
Date Issued
2022-02-01
Date Acceptance
2021-10-18
Citation
Ecosphere, 2022, 13 (2), pp.1-14
ISSN
2150-8925
Publisher
Ecological Society of America
Start Page
1
End Page
14
Journal / Book Title
Ecosphere
Volume
13
Issue
2
Copyright Statement
© 2022 The Author(s). Ecosphere published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
Identifier
https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000760264100007&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=a2bf6146997ec60c407a63945d4e92bb
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Ecology
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
decision-making
environmental stochasticity
fisheries management
management procedure
management strategy evaluation
measurement error
precautionary principle
retrospective pattern
risk analysis
state-space model
stock assessment
trade-offs
MANAGEMENT STRATEGY EVALUATION
FISH STOCK ASSESSMENT
RETROSPECTIVE PATTERNS
ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT
UNCERTAINTY
FISHERIES
ADVICE
OPTIMIZATION
STABILITY
LESSONS
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN e3923
Date Publish Online
2022-02-06