Multi-model attribution of upper-ocean temperature changes using an isothermal approach
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Both air-sea heat exchanges and changes in ocean advection have contributed to observed upper-ocean warming most evident in the late-twentieth century. However, it is predominantly via changes in air-sea heat fluxes that human-induced climate forcings, such as increasing greenhouse gases, and other natural factors such as volcanic aerosols, have influenced global ocean heat content. The present study builds on previous work using two different indicators of upper-ocean temperature changes for the detection of both anthropogenic and natural external climate forcings. Using simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, we compare mean temperatures above a fixed isotherm with the more widely adopted approach of using a fixed depth. We present the first multi-model ensemble detection and attribution analysis using the fixed isotherm approach to robustly detect both anthropogenic and natural external influences on upper-ocean temperatures. Although contributions from multidecadal natural variability cannot be fully removed, both the large multi-model ensemble size and properties of the isotherm analysis reduce internal variability of the ocean, resulting in better observation-model comparison of temperature changes since the 1950s. We further show that the high temporal resolution afforded by the isotherm analysis is required to detect natural external influences such as volcanic cooling events in the upper-ocean because the radiative effect of volcanic forcings is short-lived.
Date Issued
2016-06
Date Acceptance
2016-05-10
Citation
Scientific Reports, 2016, 6
ISSN
2045-2322
Publisher
Nature Portfolio
Journal / Book Title
Scientific Reports
Volume
6
Copyright Statement
© 2024 Springer Nature Limited. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images
or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license,
unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license,
users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this
license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license,
unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license,
users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this
license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
License URL
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27245575
Subjects
Climate
Climate Change
Greenhouse Effect
Models, Statistical
Oceans and Seas
Seawater
Temperature
Volcanic Eruptions
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
England
Article Number
26926
Date Publish Online
2016-06-01