Cost reductions in renewables can substantially erode the value of carbon capture and storage in mitigation pathways
File(s)ONE-EARTH-D-21-00117R1_MainText.docx (176.16 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Grant, Neil
Hawkes, Adam
Napp, Tamaryn
Gambhir, Ajay
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Tackling climate change requires a rapid transition to net-zero energy systems. A variety of different technologies could contribute to this transition, and uncertainty remains over their relative role and value. A growing school of thought argues that rapid cost reductions in renewables reduce the need for carbon capture and storage (CCS) in mitigation pathways. Here we use an integrated assessment model to explore how the value of CCS is affected by cost reductions in solar photovoltaics, onshore, and offshore wind. Low-cost renewables could erode the value of CCS by 15%–96% across different energy sectors. Renewables directly compete with CCS, accelerate power sector decarbonization, and enable greater electrification of end-use sectors. CCS has greatest value and resilience to low-cost renewables in sustainable bioenergy/industrial applications, with limited value in hydrogen/electricity generation. This suggests that targeted, rather than blanket, CCS deployment represents the best strategy for achieving the Paris Agreement goals.
Date Issued
2021-11
Date Acceptance
2021-10-29
Citation
One Earth, 2021, 4 (11), pp.1588-1601
ISSN
2590-3322
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Start Page
1588
End Page
1601
Journal / Book Title
One Earth
Volume
4
Issue
11
Copyright Statement
© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Sponsor
Natural Environment Research Council [2006-2012]
Commission of the European Communities
Identifier
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590332221006102?via%3Dihub
Grant Number
NE/L002515/1
820846
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-11-19