Seasonality of agricultural exposure as an important predictor of seasonal yellow fever spillover in Brazil
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Hamlet, Arran
Ramos, Daniel Garkauskas
Gaythorpe, Katy
Romano, Alessandro Pecego Martins
Garske, Tini
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Yellow fever virus (YFV) is a zoonotic arbovirus affecting both humans and non-human primates (NHP’s) in Africa and South America. Previous descriptions of YF’s seasonality have relied purely on climatic explanations, despite the high proportion of cases occurring in people involved in agriculture. We use a series of random forest classification models to predict the monthly occurrence of YF in humans and NHP’s across Brazil, by fitting four classes of covariates related to the seasonality of climate and agriculture (planting and harvesting), crop output and host demography. We find that models captured seasonal YF reporting in humans and NHPs when they considered seasonality of agriculture rather than climate, particularly for monthly aggregated reports. These findings illustrate the seasonality of exposure, through agriculture, as a component of zoonotic spillover. Additionally, by highlighting crop types and anthropogenic seasonality, these results could directly identify areas at highest risk of zoonotic spillover.
Date Issued
2021-06-15
Date Acceptance
2021-05-24
Citation
Nature Communications, 2021, 12 (3647), pp.1-11
ISSN
2041-1723
Publisher
Nature Research
Start Page
1
End Page
11
Journal / Book Title
Nature Communications
Volume
12
Issue
3647
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2021. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons
Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing,
adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give
appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative
Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party
material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless
indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the
article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory
regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from
the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing,
adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give
appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative
Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party
material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless
indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the
article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory
regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from
the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
License URL
Identifier
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-23926-y
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-06-15