The impact of U.S. re‐engagement in climate on the Paris targets
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Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The Paris Agreement seeks to combine international efforts to keep global temperature increase to well-below 2°C. Whilst current ambitions in many signatories are insufficient to achieve this goal, optimism prevailed in the second half of 2020. Not only did several major emitters announce net-zero mitigation targets around mid-century, but the new Biden Administration immediately announced the U.S.’s re-entry into Paris and a net-zero goal for 2050. U.S. federal re-engagement in climate action could have a considerable impact on its national greenhouse gas emissions pathway, by significantly augmenting existing state-level actions. Combined with U.S. re-entry in the Paris Agreement, this could also serve as a stimulus to enhance ambitions in other countries. A critical question then becomes what such U.S. re-engagement, through both national and international channels, would have on the global picture. This commentary explores precisely this question, by using an integrated assessment model to assess U.S. national emissions, global emissions, and end-of-century temperatures in five scenarios combining different climate ambition levels in both the U.S. and the rest of the world. Our analyses finds that ambitious climate leadership by the Biden Administration on top of enhanced climate commitments by other the major economies could potentially be the trigger for the world to fulfill the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.
Date Issued
2021-09
Date Acceptance
2021-08-08
Citation
Earth's Future, 2021, 9 (9), pp.1-7
ISSN
2328-4277
Publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Start Page
1
End Page
7
Journal / Book Title
Earth's Future
Volume
9
Issue
9
Copyright Statement
© 2021. The Authors. Earth's Future published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union.This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
Sponsor
Commission of the European Communities
Identifier
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021EF002077
Grant Number
820846
Subjects
0401 Atmospheric Sciences
0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience
0502 Environmental Science and Management
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-08-16