Simulation of flood hazard and risk in the Danube basin with the Future Danube Model
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Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Major river and flash flood events have accumulated in Central and Eastern Europe over the last decade reminding the public as well as the insurance sector that climate related risks are likely to become even more damaging and prevalent as climate patterns change. However, information about current and future hydro-climatic extremes is often not available. The Future Danube Model (FDM) is an end-user driven multi-hazard and risk model suite for the Danube region that has been developed to provide climate services related to perils such as heavy precipitation, heat waves, floods, and droughts under recent and scenario conditions. As a result, it provides spatially consistent information on extreme events and natural resources throughout the entire Danube catchment. It can be used to quantify climate risks, to support the implementation of the EU framework directives, for climate informed urban and land use planning, water resources management, and for climate proofing of large scale infrastructural planning including cost benefit analysis. The model suite consists of five individual and exchangeable modules: a weather and climate module, a hydrological module, a risk module, an adaptation module, and a web-based visualization module. They are linked in such a way that output from one module can either be used standalone or fed into subsequent modules. The utility of the tool has been tested by experts and stakeholders. The results show that more and more intense hydrological extremes are likely to occur under climate scenario conditions, e.g. higher order floods may occur more frequently.
Date Issued
2018-12-01
Date Acceptance
2018-07-31
Citation
Climate Services, 2018, 12, pp.14-26
ISSN
2405-8807
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
14
End Page
26
Journal / Book Title
Climate Services
Volume
12
Copyright Statement
© 2018 Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/BY-NC-ND/4.0/).
Sponsor
Commission of the European Communities
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000582012500002&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Grant Number
730381
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Physical Sciences
Environmental Sciences
Environmental Studies
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
Danube River basin
Flood risk
Climate services
Climate change
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2018-11-07