Risk of selection bias in randomised trials
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Published version
Author(s)
Kahan, Brennan C
Rehal, Sunita
Cro, Suzie
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Background
Selection bias occurs when recruiters selectively enrol patients into the trial based on what the next treatment allocation is likely to be. This can occur even if appropriate allocation concealment is used if recruiters can guess the next treatment assignment with some degree of accuracy. This typically occurs in unblinded trials when restricted randomisation is implemented to force the number of patients in each arm or within each centre to be the same. Several methods to reduce the risk of selection bias have been suggested; however, it is unclear how often these techniques are used in practice.
Methods
We performed a review of published trials which were not blinded to assess whether they utilised methods for reducing the risk of selection bias. We assessed the following techniques: (a) blinding of recruiters; (b) use of simple randomisation; (c) avoidance of stratification by site when restricted randomisation is used; (d) avoidance of permuted blocks if stratification by site is used; and (e) incorporation of prognostic covariates into the randomisation procedure when restricted randomisation is used. We included parallel group, individually randomised phase III trials published in four general medical journals (BMJ, Journal of the American Medical Association, The Lancet, and New England Journal of Medicine) in 2010.
Results
We identified 152 eligible trials. Most trials (98 %) provided no information on whether recruiters were blind to previous treatment allocations. Only 3 % of trials used simple randomisation; 63 % used some form of restricted randomisation, and 35 % did not state the method of randomisation. Overall, 44 % of trials were stratified by site of recruitment; 27 % were not, and 29 % did not report this information. Most trials that did stratify by site of recruitment used permuted blocks (58 %), and only 15 % reported using random block sizes. Many trials that used restricted randomisation also included prognostic covariates in the randomisation procedure (56 %).
Conclusions
The risk of selection bias could not be ascertained for most trials due to poor reporting. Many trials which did provide details on the randomisation procedure were at risk of selection bias due to a poorly chosen randomisation methods. Techniques to reduce the risk of selection bias should be more widely implemented.
Selection bias occurs when recruiters selectively enrol patients into the trial based on what the next treatment allocation is likely to be. This can occur even if appropriate allocation concealment is used if recruiters can guess the next treatment assignment with some degree of accuracy. This typically occurs in unblinded trials when restricted randomisation is implemented to force the number of patients in each arm or within each centre to be the same. Several methods to reduce the risk of selection bias have been suggested; however, it is unclear how often these techniques are used in practice.
Methods
We performed a review of published trials which were not blinded to assess whether they utilised methods for reducing the risk of selection bias. We assessed the following techniques: (a) blinding of recruiters; (b) use of simple randomisation; (c) avoidance of stratification by site when restricted randomisation is used; (d) avoidance of permuted blocks if stratification by site is used; and (e) incorporation of prognostic covariates into the randomisation procedure when restricted randomisation is used. We included parallel group, individually randomised phase III trials published in four general medical journals (BMJ, Journal of the American Medical Association, The Lancet, and New England Journal of Medicine) in 2010.
Results
We identified 152 eligible trials. Most trials (98 %) provided no information on whether recruiters were blind to previous treatment allocations. Only 3 % of trials used simple randomisation; 63 % used some form of restricted randomisation, and 35 % did not state the method of randomisation. Overall, 44 % of trials were stratified by site of recruitment; 27 % were not, and 29 % did not report this information. Most trials that did stratify by site of recruitment used permuted blocks (58 %), and only 15 % reported using random block sizes. Many trials that used restricted randomisation also included prognostic covariates in the randomisation procedure (56 %).
Conclusions
The risk of selection bias could not be ascertained for most trials due to poor reporting. Many trials which did provide details on the randomisation procedure were at risk of selection bias due to a poorly chosen randomisation methods. Techniques to reduce the risk of selection bias should be more widely implemented.
Date Issued
2015-09-10
Date Acceptance
2015-08-20
Citation
Trials, 2015, 16, pp.1-7
ISSN
1745-6215
Publisher
BioMed Central
Start Page
1
End Page
7
Journal / Book Title
Trials
Volume
16
Copyright Statement
© 2015 Kahan et al. Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and
reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to
the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver
(http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.
International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and
reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to
the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver
(http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000361028700003&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Medicine, Research & Experimental
Research & Experimental Medicine
Randomised controlled trial
Clinical trial
Selection bias
Randomisation procedure
MULTICENTER TRIALS
MINIMIZATION
ALLOCATION
OUTCOMES
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN 405
Date Publish Online
2015-09-10