Urban metro rail demand: evidence from dynamic generalised method of moments (GMM) estimates using panel data
File(s)Urban metro rail demand - V3.docx (93.37 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Canavan, S
Graham, Daniel
Anderson, Richard
Barron, Alexander
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
This paper estimates elasticities of demand for metro service with respect to fares, income, quality of service, population and network length. Data for 32 world metro systems covering the period from 1996 to 2015 are analysed within a dynamic panel data specification. Three key contributions are made. First, we collate a database for estimation that is more extensive than that used in previous studies. Second, the quality of the data we have available allows us to more accurately represent quality of service than has been possible previously. And lastly, we estimate and compare two different measures of demand. Our analysis finds a statistically significant negative fare elasticity of -0.25 in the long run for a passenger km specified model and -0.4 in the long run for a passenger journeys specified model, and a positive long run income elasticity of 0.17 and 0.18 for the passenger km and passenger journey models respectively. Regarding quality of service we find positive long run elasticities of 0.56 and 0.47 for the passenger km and passenger journey models respectively. Income levels, population and the size of the network are also found to be statistically significant and positive in nature. The results suggest passenger km and passenger journeys will increase more in response to changes in service (here represented by increased capacity) than to changes in fares, with the difference in elasticities of service and fares being more pronounced for passenger km.
Date Issued
2018-12-01
Date Acceptance
2018-02-06
Citation
Transportation Research Record, 2018, 2672 (8), pp.288-296
ISSN
0361-1981
Publisher
National Academy of Sciences
Start Page
288
End Page
296
Journal / Book Title
Transportation Research Record
Volume
2672
Issue
8
Copyright Statement
©National Academy of Sciences:Transportation Research Board 2018. The final, definitive version of this paper has been published in Transportation Research Record by Sage Publications Ltd. All rights reserved. It is available at: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0361198118794547
Subjects
Science & Technology
Technology
Engineering, Civil
Transportation
Transportation Science & Technology
Engineering
PUBLIC TRANSPORT
ELASTICITIES
0905 Civil Engineering
1205 Urban and Regional Planning
1507 Transportation and Freight Services
Logistics & Transportation
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2018-09-01