Inferring HIV transmission patterns from viral deep sequence data via latent typed point processes
File(s)
Author(s)
Bu, Fan
Kagaayi, Joseph
Grabowski, Kate
Ratmann, Oliver
Xu, Jason
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Viral deep-sequencing data play a crucial role toward understanding disease transmission network flows, providing higher resolution compared to standard Sanger sequencing. To more fully utilize these rich data and account for the uncertainties in outcomes from phylogenetic analyses, we propose a spatial Poisson process model to uncover human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission flow patterns at the population level. We represent pairings of individuals with viral sequence data as typed points, with coordinates representing covariates such as gender and age and point types representing the unobserved transmission statuses (linkage and direction). Points are associated with observed scores on the strength of evidence for each transmission status that are obtained through standard deep-sequence phylogenetic analysis. Our method is able to jointly infer the latent transmission statuses for all pairings and the transmission flow surface on the source-recipient covariate space. In contrast to existing methods, our framework does not require preclassification of the transmission statuses of data points, and instead learns them probabilistically through a fully Bayesian inference scheme. By directly modeling continuous spatial processes with smooth densities, our method enjoys significant computational advantages compared to previous methods that rely on discretization of the covariate space. We demonstrate that our framework can capture age structures in HIV transmission at high resolution, bringing valuable insights in a case study on viral deep-sequencing data from Southern Uganda.
Date Issued
2024-03
Date Acceptance
2023-10-26
Citation
Biometrics, 2024, 80 (1)
ISSN
0006-341X
Publisher
Wiley
Journal / Book Title
Biometrics
Volume
80
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
Copyright © 2024 Oxford University Press. This is a pre-copy-editing, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in Biometrics following peer review. The definitive publisher-authenticated version Fan Bu, Joseph Kagaayi, Mary Kate Grabowski, Oliver Ratmann, Jason Xu, Inferring HIV transmission patterns from viral deep-sequence data via latent typed point processes, Biometrics, Volume 80, Issue 1, March 2024, ujad015, https://doi.org/10.1093/biomtc/ujad015
Identifier
https://academic.oup.com/biometrics/article/80/1/ujad015/7610191
Publication Status
Published
Rights Embargo Date
2025-02-18
Article Number
ujad015
Date Publish Online
2024-02-19