A Bayesian methodology for systemic risk assessment in financial networks
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Supporting information
Accepted version
Author(s)
Gandy, A
Veraart, LAM
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We develop a Bayesian methodology for systemic risk assessment in financial networks such as the
interbank market. Nodes represent participants in the network and weighted directed edges represent
liabilities. Often, for every participant, only the total liabilities and total assets within this network are
observable. However, systemic risk assessment needs the individual liabilities. We propose a model
for the individual liabilities, which, following a Bayesian approach, we then condition on the observed
total liabilities and assets and, potentially, on certain observed individual liabilities. We construct a
Gibbs sampler to generate samples from this conditional distribution. These samples can be used in
stress testing, giving probabilities for the outcomes of interest. As one application we derive default
probabilities of individual banks and discuss their sensitivity with respect to prior information included
to model the network. An R-package implementing the methodology is provided.
interbank market. Nodes represent participants in the network and weighted directed edges represent
liabilities. Often, for every participant, only the total liabilities and total assets within this network are
observable. However, systemic risk assessment needs the individual liabilities. We propose a model
for the individual liabilities, which, following a Bayesian approach, we then condition on the observed
total liabilities and assets and, potentially, on certain observed individual liabilities. We construct a
Gibbs sampler to generate samples from this conditional distribution. These samples can be used in
stress testing, giving probabilities for the outcomes of interest. As one application we derive default
probabilities of individual banks and discuss their sensitivity with respect to prior information included
to model the network. An R-package implementing the methodology is provided.
Date Issued
2017-12-01
Date Acceptance
2016-04-01
Citation
Management Science, 2017, 63 (12), pp.4428-4446
ISSN
0025-1909
Publisher
Institute for Operations Research and Management Sciences
Start Page
4428
End Page
4446
Journal / Book Title
Management Science
Volume
63
Issue
12
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Copyright © 2016, INFORMS
or systematic downloading (by robots or other automatic processes) is prohibited without explicit Publisher
approval, unless otherwise noted. For more information, contact permissions@informs.org.
Copyright © 2016, INFORMS
Subjects
Social Sciences
Science & Technology
Technology
Management
Operations Research & Management Science
Business & Economics
financial network
unknown interbank liabilities
systemic risk
Bayes
MCMC
Gibbs sampler
power law
INTERBANK MARKET
CONTAGION
MATRICES
Operations Research
08 Information and Computing Sciences
15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2016-10-06