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  4. Anticipating changes to future connectivity within a network of marine protected areas
 
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Anticipating changes to future connectivity within a network of marine protected areas
File(s)
Coleman_et_al-2017-Global_Change_Biology.pdf (933.84 KB)
Published version
Author(s)
Coleman, MA
Cetina-Heredia, P
Roughan, M
Feng, M
van Sebille, E
more
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Continental boundary currents are projected to be altered under future scenarios of climate change. As these currents often influence dispersal and connectivity among populations of many marine organisms, changes to boundary currents may have dramatic implications for population persistence. Networks of marine protected areas (MPAs) often aim to maintain connectivity, but anticipation of the scale and extent of climatic impacts on connectivity are required to achieve this critical conservation goal in a future of climate change. For two key marine species (kelp and sea urchins), we use oceanographic modelling to predict how continental boundary currents are likely to change connectivity among a network of MPAs spanning over 1000 km of coastline off the coast of eastern Australia. Overall change in predicted connectivity among pairs of MPAs within the network did not change significantly over and above temporal variation within climatic scenarios, highlighting the need for future studies to incorporate temporal variation in dispersal to robustly anticipate likely change. However, the intricacies of connectivity between different pairs of MPAs were noteworthy. For kelp, poleward connectivity among pairs of MPAs tended to increase in the future, whereas equatorward connectivity tended to decrease. In contrast, for sea urchins, connectivity among pairs of MPAs generally decreased in both directions. Self-seeding within higher-latitude MPAs tended to increase, and the role of low-latitude MPAs as a sink for urchins changed significantly in contrasting ways. These projected changes have the potential to alter important genetic parameters with implications for adaptation and ecosystem vulnerability to climate change. Considering such changes, in the context of managing and designing MPA networks, may ensure that conservation goals are achieved into the future.
Date Issued
2017-01-25
Date Acceptance
2017-01-06
Citation
Global Change Biology, 2017, 23 (9), pp.3533-3542
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/44850
DOI
https://www.dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13634
ISSN
1365-2486
Publisher
Wiley
Start Page
3533
End Page
3542
Journal / Book Title
Global Change Biology
Volume
23
Issue
9
Copyright Statement
© 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Sponsor
Australian Research Council
Grant Number
DE130101336
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Biodiversity Conservation
Ecology
Environmental Sciences
Biodiversity & Conservation
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
Centrostephanus rodgersii
climate change
dispersal
Ecklonia radiata
kelp
marine reserve
ocean currents
urchin
NEW-SOUTH-WALES
URCHIN CENTROSTEPHANUS-RODGERSII
EAST AUSTRALIAN CURRENT
CLIMATE-CHANGE
BOUNDARY CURRENTS
CORAL-REEFS
RESERVES
CONSERVATION
DISPERSAL
PATTERNS
06 Biological Sciences
05 Environmental Sciences
Publication Status
Published
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