The future cost of electrical energy storage based on experience rates
File(s)20170620_FINAL_ExpCurves_Main.pdf (1.27 MB) 20170620_FINAL_ExpCurves_SI.pdf (1.65 MB)
Accepted version
Supporting information
Author(s)
Schmidt, O
Hawkes
Gambhir
Staffell
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Electrical energy storage could play a pivotal role in future low-carbon electricity systems, balancing inflexible or intermittentsupply with demand. Cost projections are important for understanding this role, but data are scarce and uncertain.Here, we construct experience curves to project future prices for 11 electrical energy storage technologies. We find that,regardless of technology, capital costs are on a trajectory towards US$340 ± 60 kWh−1for installed stationary systems andUS$175 ± 25 kWh−1for battery packs once 1 TWh of capacity is installed for each technology. Bottom-up assessment ofmaterial and production costs indicates this price range is not infeasible. Cumulative investments of US$175–510 billion wouldbe needed for any technology to reach 1 TWh deployment, which could be achieved by 2027–2040 based on market growthprojections. Finally, we explore how the derived rates of future cost reduction influence when storage becomes economicallycompetitive in transport and residential applications. Thus, our experience-curve data set removes a barrier for further studyby industry, policymakers and academics.
Date Issued
2017-07-10
Date Acceptance
2017-06-08
Citation
Nature Energy, 2017, 2 (8)
ISSN
2058-7546
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group
Journal / Book Title
Nature Energy
Volume
2
Issue
8
Copyright Statement
Copyright © 2017, Rights Managed by Nature Publishing Group
Sponsor
Economic & Social Research Council (ESRC)
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (E
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC)
Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC)
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council
Identifier
https://www.nature.com/articles/nenergy2017110
Grant Number
ES/M500562/1
EP/K503733/1
EP/M001369/1
NE/N018656/1
EP/N005996/1
EP/N005996/1
Subjects
Science & Technology
Technology
Energy & Fuels
Materials Science, Multidisciplinary
Materials Science
POWER-SYSTEM
TECHNOLOGIES
BATTERIES
VEHICLES
EMISSIONS
CURVES
0906 Electrical and Electronic Engineering
0907 Environmental Engineering
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
17110