Information search and information distortion in the diagnosis of an ambiguous presentation
File(s)Kostopoulou Mousoulis Delaney JDM 09.pdf (207.08 KB)
Published version
Author(s)
Kostopoulou, O
Mousoulis, C
Delaney, BC
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Physicians often encounter diagnostic problems with ambiguous and conflicting features. What are they likely to do in such situations? We presented a diagnostic scenario to 84 family physicians and traced their information gathering, diagnoses and management. The scenario contained an ambiguous feature, while the other features supported either a cardiac or a musculoskeletal diagnosis. Due to the risk of death, the cardiac diagnosis should be considered and managed appropriately. Forty-seven participants (56%) gave only a musculoskeletal diagnosis and 45 of them managed the patient inappropriately (sent him home with painkillers). They elicited less information and spent less time on the scenario than those who diagnosed a cardiac cause. No feedback was provided to participants. Stimulated recall with 52 of the physicians revealed differences in the way that the same information was interpreted as a function of the final diagnosis. The musculoskeletal group denigrated important cues, making them coherent with their representation of a pulled muscle, whilst the cardiac group saw them as evidence for a cardiac problem. Most physicians indicated that they were fairly or very certain about their diagnosis. The observed behaviours can be described as coherence- based reasoning, whereby an emerging judgment influences the evaluation of incoming information, so that confident judgments can be achieved even with ambiguous, uncertain and conflicting information. The role of coherence-based reasoning in medical diagnosis and diagnostic error needs to be systematically examined.
Date Issued
2009-08-02
Date Acceptance
2009-08-01
Citation
Judgment and Decision Making, 2009, 4 (5), pp.408-418
ISSN
1930-2975
Publisher
Society for Judgment and Decision Making
Start Page
408
End Page
418
Journal / Book Title
Judgment and Decision Making
Volume
4
Issue
5
Copyright Statement
© 2009 the Authors
License URL
Subjects
coherence-based reasoning, cognitive consistency, stimulated recall, diagnostic error, ambiguous information
Publication Status
Published