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Confronting Earth System Model trends with observations
File(s)
sciadv.adt8035.pdf (1.15 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Simpson, Isla R
Shaw, Tiffany A
Ceppi, Paulo
Clement, Amy C
Fischer, Erich
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Anthropogenically forced climate change signals are emerging from the noise of internal variability in observations, and the impacts on society are growing. For decades, Climate or Earth System Models have been predicting how these climate change signals will unfold. While challenges remain, given the growing forced trends and the lengthening observational record, the climate science community is now in a position to confront the signals, as represented by historical trends, in models with observations. This review covers the state of the science on the ability of models to represent historical trends in the climate system. It also outlines robust procedures that should be used when comparing modeled and observed trends and how to move beyond quantification into understanding. Finally, this review discusses cutting-edge methods for identifying sources of discrepancies and the importance of future confrontations.
Date Issued
2025-03-14
Date Acceptance
2025-02-04
Citation
Science Advances, 2025, 11 (11)
URI
URL
DOI
ISSN
2375-2548
Publisher
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Start Page
eadt8035
Journal / Book Title
Science Advances
Volume
11
Issue
11
Copyright Statement
© 2025 the authors; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science subject to Canadian Crown copyright, © His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of the Environment, 2025. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY). https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/40073142
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
United States
Article Number
eadt8035
Date Publish Online
2025-03-12