Testing for jump spillovers without testing for jumps
File(s)Jumps_JASA_revision.pdf (708.72 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Corradi, V
Distaso, Walter
Fernandes, M
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
This paper develops statistical tools for testing conditional independence among the jump components ofthe daily quadratic variation, which we estimate using intraday data. To avoid sequential bias distortion, wedo not pretest for the presence of jumps. If the null is true, our test statistic based on daily integrated jumpsweakly converges to a Gaussian random variable if both assets have jumps. If instead at least one assethas no jumps, then the statistic approaches zero in probability. We show how to compute asymptoticallyvalid bootstrap-based critical values that result in a consistent test with asymptotic size equal to or smallerthan the nominal size. Empirically, we study jump linkages between US futures and equity index markets.We find not only strong evidence of jump cross-excitation between the SPDR exchange-traded fund andE-mini futures on the S&P 500 index, but also that integrated jumps in the E-mini futures during theovernight period carry relevant information.
Date Issued
2019-06-19
Date Acceptance
2019-04-10
Citation
Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2019, 115 (531), pp.1214-1226
ISSN
0162-1459
Publisher
Taylor & Francis
Start Page
1214
End Page
1226
Journal / Book Title
Journal of the American Statistical Association
Volume
115
Issue
531
Sponsor
Economic & Social Research Council (ESRC)
Identifier
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01621459.2019.1609971
Grant Number
ES/F015909/1
Subjects
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Statistics & Probability
Mathematics
Conditional independence
Jump intensity
Kernel smoothing
Quadratic variation
Realized measure
P 500 FUTURES
PRICE DISCOVERY
LIMIT-THEOREMS
STOCK
VOLATILITY
INFERENCE
BOOTSTRAP
VOLUME
NOISE
INDEX
0104 Statistics
1403 Econometrics
1603 Demography
Statistics & Probability
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2019-05-15