A novel energy systems model to explore the role of land use and reforestation in achieving carbon mitigation targets: A Brazil case study
File(s)JCLPO Accepted.pdf (3.59 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
García Kerdan, I
Giarola, S
Hawkes, A
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Due to its low global share of direct energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions (1–2%), the implications of technological transitions in the agricultural and forestry sector on the energy system have been overlooked. This paper introduces the Agriculture and Land Use Sector module part of the ModUlar energy System Environment (MUSE), a novel energy system simulation model. The study presents a generalisable method that enables energy modellers to characterise agricultural technologies within an energy system modelling framework. Different mechanisation processes were characterised to simulate intensification/extensification transitions in the sector and its wider implications in the energy and land use system aiming at providing reliable non-energy outputs similarly to those found in dedicated land use models. Additionally, a forest growth model has been integrated to explore the role of reforestation alongside decarbonisation measures in the energy system in achieving carbon mitigation pathways. To illustrate the model's capabilities, Brazil is used as case study. Outputs suggest that by 2030 under a 2 °C mitigation scenario, most of Brazil agricultural production would move from ‘transitional’ to ‘modern’ practices, improving productivity and reducing deforestation rates, at the expense of higher energy and fertiliser demand. By mid-century Brazil has the potential to liberate around 24.4 Mha of agricultural land, where large-scale reforestation could have the capacity to sequester around 5.6 GtCO2, alleviating mitigation efforts in the energy system, especially reducing carbon capture and storage technology investments in the industry and power sector.
Date Issued
2019-09-20
Date Acceptance
2019-05-28
Citation
Journal of Cleaner Production, 2019, 232, pp.796-821
ISSN
0959-6526
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
796
End Page
821
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Cleaner Production
Volume
232
Copyright Statement
© 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.
Sponsor
Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)
Newton/NERC/FAPESP Sustainable Gas Futures project NE/N018656/1
Grant Number
NE/N018656/1
Newton/NERC/FAPESP Sustainable Gas Futures project NE/N018656/1
Subjects
Environmental Sciences
0907 Environmental Engineering
0910 Manufacturing Engineering
0915 Interdisciplinary Engineering
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2019-06-03