Selecting among counterfactual methods to evaluate conservation interventions
Author(s)
O'Garra, T
Martin, R
Pynegar, E
Polo-Urrea, C
Eklund, J
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Effective conservation that benefits biodiversity and human well-being is imperative for global sustainability. Achieving this requires rigorous evaluation of conservation policies and programs to understand their causal effects on environmental and social outcomes. Counterfactual impact evaluation methods offer a robust framework for assessing intervention impacts by comparing observed outcomes with hypothetical alternative scenarios (the ‘counterfactual’). Despite recent advances, a significant research-implementation gap persists in applying these methods within conservation practice. This paper is intended to help conservation practitioners, scientists, and funders respond to the growing demand for causal evaluations by providing an introductory overview of key counterfactual evaluation methods. It introduces a decision framework to guide the selection of appropriate evaluation methods according to project-specific parameters, such as project goals and timing. Application of the framework is illustrated through examples including community-managed fisheries, camera traps, and payments for ecosystem services. These examples highlight that the most appropriate evaluation method depends on various factors, such as whether the intervention can be randomized, available sample size, and data availability from both intervention and non-intervention sites. By providing a structured approach to selecting counterfactual methods for specific conservation projects, this paper aims to stimulate broader adoption of evidence-based practices in conservation.
Date Issued
2025-11-01
Date Acceptance
2025-05-06
Citation
Conservation Science and Practice, 2025, 7 (11)
ISSN
2578-4854
Publisher
Wiley
Journal / Book Title
Conservation Science and Practice
Volume
7
Issue
11
Copyright Statement
© 2025 The Author(s). Conservation Science and Practice published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
Identifier
10.1111/csp2.70066
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
e70066
Date Publish Online
2025-06-17