Enhancing survey-based investment forecasts
File(s)2019 JoF Driver and Meade with page numbers.pdf (751.97 KB)
Published version
Author(s)
Driver, Ciaran
Meade, Nigel
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We investigate the accuracy of capital investment predictors from a national business survey of South African manufacturing. Based on data available to correspondents at the time of survey completion, we propose variables that might inform the confidence that can be attached to their predictions. Having calibrated the survey predictors' directional accuracy, we model the probability of a correct directional prediction using logistic regression with the proposed variables. For point forecasting, we compare the accuracy of rescaled survey forecasts with time series benchmarks and some survey/time series hybrid models. In addition, using the same set of variables, we model the magnitude of survey prediction errors. Directional forecast tests showed that three out of four survey predictors have value but are biased and inefficient. For shorter horizons we found that survey forecasts, enhanced by time series data, significantly improved point forecasting accuracy. For longer horizons the survey predictors were at least as accurate as alternatives. The usefulness of the more accurate of the predictors examined is enhanced by auxiliary information, namely the probability of directional accuracy and the estimated error magnitude.
Date Issued
2019-04
Date Acceptance
2018-12-04
Citation
Journal of Forecasting, 2019, 38 (3), pp.236-255
ISSN
0277-6693
Publisher
Wiley
Start Page
236
End Page
255
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Forecasting
Volume
38
Issue
3
Copyright Statement
© 2018 The Authors Journal of Forecasting Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
Identifier
https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000461059200006&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=a2bf6146997ec60c407a63945d4e92bb
Subjects
BUSINESS
Business & Economics
business surveys
directional forecasting
Economics
EXPECTATIONS
forecasting accuracy
forecasting evaluation
GROWTH
Management
OUTPUT
PERFORMANCE
Social Sciences
time series
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2018-12-07