RMCMC: A system for updating Bayesian models
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Published version
Author(s)
Lau, FD-H
Gandy, A
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
A system to update estimates from a sequence of probability distributions is presented. The aim of the system is to quickly produce estimates with a user-specified bound on the Monte Carlo error. The estimates are based upon weighted samples stored in a database. The stored samples are maintained such that the accuracy of the estimates and quality of the samples are satisfactory. This maintenance involves varying the number of samples in the database and updating their weights. New samples are generated, when required, by a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The system is demonstrated using a football league model that is used to predict the end of season table. The correctness of the estimates and their accuracy are shown in a simulation using a linear Gaussian model.
Date Issued
2014-06-16
Date Acceptance
2014-06-07
Citation
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 2014, 80, pp.99-110
ISSN
0167-9473
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
99
End Page
110
Journal / Book Title
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis
Volume
80
Copyright Statement
© 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC
BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/)
BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/)
License URL
Subjects
Science & Technology
Technology
Physical Sciences
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
Statistics & Probability
Computer Science
Mathematics
Importance sampling
Markov chain Monte Carlo methods
Monte Carlo techniques
Streaming data
Sports modelling
CHAIN MONTE-CARLO
DISTRIBUTIONS
SCORES
stat.ME
Statistics
Computation Theory And Mathematics
Econometrics
Publication Status
Published