Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling
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Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The estimation of parameters and model structure for informing infectious disease response has become a focal point of the recent pandemic. However, it has also highlighted a plethora of challenges remaining in the fast and robust extraction of information using data and models to help inform policy. In this paper, we identify and discuss four broad challenges in the estimation paradigm relating to infectious disease modelling, namely the Uncertainty Quantification framework, data challenges in estimation, model-based inference and prediction, and expert judgement. We also postulate priorities in estimation methodology to facilitate preparation for future pandemics.
Date Issued
2022-03-01
Date Acceptance
2022-02-09
Citation
Epidemics: the journal of infectious disease dynamics, 2022, 38, pp.1-12
ISSN
1755-4365
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
1
End Page
12
Journal / Book Title
Epidemics: the journal of infectious disease dynamics
Volume
38
Copyright Statement
© 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Identifier
https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000804687300008&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Infectious Diseases
Statistical estimation
Uncertainty quantification
Expert elicitation
Pandemic modelling
APPROXIMATE BAYESIAN COMPUTATION
INFERENCE
KNOWLEDGE
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN 100547
Date Publish Online
2022-02-10