Revealing the Micro-scale Signature of Endemic Zoonotic Disease Transmission in an African Urban Setting.
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Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The development of novel approaches that combine epidemiological and genomic data provides new opportunities to reveal the spatiotemporal dynamics of infectious diseases and determine the processes responsible for their spread and maintenance. Taking advantage of detailed epidemiological time series and viral sequence data from more than 20 years reported by the National Reference Centre for Rabies of Bangui, the capital city of Central African Republic, we used a combination of mathematical modeling and phylogenetic analysis to determine the spatiotemporal dynamics of rabies in domestic dogs as well as the frequency of extinction and introduction events in an African city. We show that although dog rabies virus (RABV) appears to be endemic in Bangui, its epidemiology is in fact shaped by the regular extinction of local chains of transmission coupled with the introduction of new lineages, generating successive waves of spread. Notably, the effective reproduction number during each wave was rarely above the critical value of 1, such that rabies is not self-sustaining in Bangui. In turn, this suggests that rabies at local geographic scales is driven by human-mediated dispersal of RABV among sparsely connected peri-urban and rural areas as opposed to dispersion in a relatively large homogenous urban dog population. This combined epidemiological and genomic approach enables development of a comprehensive framework for understanding disease persistence and informing control measures, indicating that control measures are probably best targeted towards areas neighbouring the city that appear as the source of frequent incursions seeding outbreaks in Bangui.
Date Issued
2016-04-08
Date Acceptance
2016-03-03
Citation
PLOS Pathogens, 2016, 12 (4)
ISSN
1553-7366
Publisher
Public Library of Science
Journal / Book Title
PLOS Pathogens
Volume
12
Issue
4
Copyright Statement
© 2016 Bourhy et al. This is an open
access article distributed under the terms of the
Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits
unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any
medium, provided the original author and source are
credited.
access article distributed under the terms of the
Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits
unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any
medium, provided the original author and source are
credited.
License URL
Identifier
PII: PPATHOGENS-D-15-02240
Subjects
Virology
0605 Microbiology
1107 Immunology
1108 Medical Microbiology
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
e1005525