A shortening of the life-cycle of major tropical cyclones
File(s)2020GL088589.pdf (1.39 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Wang, shaui
Rashid, Theo
Thorp, Henry
Toumi, Ralf
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
In this study a comprehensive picture of the changing intensity life cycle of major (Category 3 and higher) tropical cyclones (TCs) is presented. Over the past decades, the lifetime maximum intensity has increased, but there has also been a significant decrease in duration of time spent at intensities greater than Category 1. These compensating effects have maintained a stable global mean‐accumulated cyclone energy of individual major TCs. The global mean duration of major TCs has shortened by about 1 day from 1982 to 2018. There has been both faster intensification (Categories 1 to 3) and weakening (Categories 3 to 1) by about 40%. The probabilities of rapid intensification and rapid weakening have both risen in the period 2000–2018 compared to 1982–1999. A statistically significant anticorrelation is found between the lifetime maximum intensity and the following duration of the final weakening. This suggests an element of self‐regulation of TC life cycles.
Date Acceptance
2020-06-13
Citation
Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (14), pp.28 Jul 2020-28 Jul 2020
ISSN
0094-8276
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
Start Page
28 Jul 2020
End Page
28 Jul 2020
Journal / Book Title
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume
47
Issue
14
Copyright Statement
©2020. The Authors.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
Sponsor
Met Office
Grant Number
P106409
Subjects
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
e2020GL088589
Date Publish Online
2020-06-18