Global assessment of the merit-order effect and revenue cannibalisation for variable renewable energy
File(s)20201120 Merit order paper FINAL.pdf (2.27 MB)
Working paper
OA Location
Author(s)
Type
Working Paper
Abstract
The rapid growth of wind and solar power has been a major driver for decarbonisation worldwide. They tend to reduce wholesale electricity prices, both the time-weighted average (the merit‑order effect) and their own output-weighted average (price cannibalisation). Whilst these effects have been widely observed, most previous studies focus on single countries. Here, we compare 37 electricity markets across Europe, North America, Australia and Japan and explore variations between them.Merit-order and cannibalisation effects are observed in nearly all countries studied. However, only in Germany, Spain, Poland, Portugal, Denmark and California can renewable output explain more than 10% of variation in wholesale electricity prices. The global average merit‑order effect is €0.68±€0.54 /MWh per percentage point increase in variable renewable energy penetration, and this falls with higher penetration. Revenues captured by wind farms decrease by 0.23% (€0.16 /MWh) for each percentage point increase of wind penetration and by 1.94% (€0.90 /MWh) for solar PV.
Date Issued
2020-12-02
Citation
2020
Publisher
Elsevier
Copyright Statement
© 2020 The Author(s)
Sponsor
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC)
Identifier
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3741232
Grant Number
EP/R045518/1
Notes
Source info: JOULE-D-20-01487
Publication Status
Published