Natural selection of synthetic gene drives for population suppression can favor an intermediate strength of drive
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Beaghton, Pantelis John
Burt, Austin
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Synthetic gene drives are being investigated as tools to suppress pest populations, and it is important to understand how natural selection will act on variant drivers that may either arise by de novo mutation or are intentionally released. In this study we extend previous spatially implicit stochastic models to examine the evolutionary dynamics of synthetic driving Y chromosomes in patchy environments when population size is responding dynamically to the spread of the driver, and derive conditions for the existence of an evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) for drive strength. Under broad conditions an intermediate drive strength
emerges as the ESS, capable of outcompeting both stronger and weaker variants. Additionally, we show how the intentional release of two drivers straddling the ESS can help stabilize population dynamics. Finally, inbreeding depression has the effect of expanding the range of
conditions under which no intermediate ESS exists, with ever stronger drive being selected until the population is eliminated. These results provide insights into the expected evolutionary trajectories of gene drive systems, with important implications for the design and release of gene drives for pest and vector control.
emerges as the ESS, capable of outcompeting both stronger and weaker variants. Additionally, we show how the intentional release of two drivers straddling the ESS can help stabilize population dynamics. Finally, inbreeding depression has the effect of expanding the range of
conditions under which no intermediate ESS exists, with ever stronger drive being selected until the population is eliminated. These results provide insights into the expected evolutionary trajectories of gene drive systems, with important implications for the design and release of gene drives for pest and vector control.
Date Issued
2025-09-01
Date Acceptance
2025-03-28
Citation
The American Naturalist, 2025, 206 (3), pp.206-217
ISSN
0003-0147
Publisher
University of Chicago Press
Start Page
206
End Page
217
Journal / Book Title
The American Naturalist
Volume
206
Issue
3
Copyright Statement
© 2025 The University of Chicago. All Rights reserved. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC 4.0), which permits non-commercial reuse of the work with attribution. For commercial use, contact journalpermissions@press.uchicago.edu.
License URL
Identifier
10.1086/736727
Subjects
Genetic biocontrol
Driving Y chromosome
Evolutionary stable strategy
Sex ratio
Local mate competition
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2025-07-11