A hybrid stochastic rainfall model that reproduces some important rainfall characteristics at hourly to yearly timescales
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Author(s)
Park, Jeongha
Onof, Christian
Kim, Dongkyun
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
A novel approach to stochastic rainfall generation that can reproduce various statistical characteristics of observed rainfall at hourly to yearly timescales is presented. The model uses a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to generate monthly rainfall. Then, it downscales the generated monthly rainfall to the hourly aggregation level using the Modified Bartlett–Lewis Rectangular Pulse (MBLRP) model, a type of Poisson cluster rainfall model. Here, the MBLRP model is carefully calibrated such that it can reproduce the sub-daily statistical properties of observed rainfall. This was achieved by first generating a set of fine-scale rainfall statistics reflecting the complex correlation structure between rainfall mean, variance, auto-covariance, and proportion of dry periods, and then coupling it to the generated monthly rainfall, which were used as the basis of the MBLRP parameterization. The approach was tested on 34 gauges located in the Midwest to the east coast of the continental United States with a variety of rainfall characteristics. The results of the test suggest that our hybrid model accurately reproduces the first- to the third-order statistics as well as the intermittency properties from the hourly to the annual timescales, and the statistical behaviour of monthly maxima and extreme values of the observed rainfall were reproduced well.
Date Issued
2019-02-19
Date Acceptance
2019-02-05
Citation
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2019, 23 (2), pp.989-1014
ISSN
1027-5606
Publisher
Copernicus Publications
Start Page
989
End Page
1014
Journal / Book Title
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Volume
23
Issue
2
Copyright Statement
© 2019 Author(s). This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000459120000001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Water Resources
Geology
RECTANGULAR PULSE MODEL
POINT PROCESS MODELS
TIME-SERIES
WEATHER GENERATOR
CLIMATE-CHANGE
PARAMETER-ESTIMATION
DISAGGREGATION
PRECIPITATION
CASCADE
SIMULATION
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2019-02-19