FIFA ranking: Evaluation and path forward
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Szczecinski, Leszek
Roatis, Iris-Ioana
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
In this work, we study the ranking algorithm used by Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA); we analyze the parameters that it currently uses, show the formal probabilistic model from which it can be derived, and optimize the latter. In particular, analyzing games since the introduction of the algorithm in 2018, we conclude that game’s “importance” (defined by FIFA and used by the algorithm) is counterproductive from the point of view of the predictive capacity of the algorithm. We also postulate that the algorithm should be rooted in the formal modeling principle, where the Davidson model proposed in 1970 seems to be an excellent candidate, preserving the form of the algorithm currently used. The results indicate that the predictive capacity of the algorithm is considerably improved by using the home-field advantage (HFA), as well as the explicit model for the draws in the game. Moderate but notable improvement may be achieved by introducing the weighting of the results with the goal differential, which, although not rooted in a formal modeling principle, is compatible with the current algorithm and can be tuned to the characteristics of the football competition.
Date Issued
2022-12-30
Date Acceptance
2022-06-09
Citation
Journal of Sports Analytics, 2022, 8 (4), pp.231-250
ISSN
2215-020X
Publisher
IOS Press
Start Page
231
End Page
250
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Sports Analytics
Volume
8
Issue
4
Copyright Statement
© 2022 – The authors. Published by IOS Press. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms
of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License (CC BY-NC 4.0).
of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License (CC BY-NC 4.0).
License URL
Identifier
http://dx.doi.org/10.3233/jsa-200619
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2022-12-30