Six ways population change will affect the global economy
Author(s)
Mason, Andrew
Lee, Ronald
Sefton, James
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
New estimates of economic flows by age combined with population projections show that in the coming decades 1) global GDP growth could be slower by about 1 percentage point per year, declining more sharply than population growth; 2) GDP will shift towards sub-Saharan Africa more than population trends suggest; 3) living standards of working-age adults may be squeezed by high spending on children and seniors; 4) changing population age distribution will raise living standards in many lower income nations; 5) changing economic life cycles will amplify the economic effects of population aging in many higher income economies; and 6) population aging will likely push public debt, private assets, and perhaps productivity higher. Population change will have profound implications for national, regional and global economies.
Date Issued
2022-02-14
Date Acceptance
2021-10-29
Citation
Population and Development Review, 2022, 48 (1)
ISSN
0098-7921
Publisher
Wiley
Journal / Book Title
Population and Development Review
Volume
48
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© 2022 The Authors. Population and Development Review published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Population Council.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
Sponsor
Economic & Social Research Council (ESRC)
Identifier
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/padr.12469
Grant Number
ES/P000142/1
Subjects
Demography
1603 Demography
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2022-02-14