Evolution of spray and aerosol from respiratory releases: theoretical estimates for insight on viral transmission
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Published version
Author(s)
de Oliveira, PM
Mesquita, LCC
Gkantonas, S
Giusti, A
Mastorakos, E
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
By modelling the evaporation and settling of droplets emitted during respiratory releases and using previous measurements of droplet size distributions and SARS-CoV-2 viral load, estimates of the evolution of the liquid mass and the number of viral copies suspended were performed as a function of time from the release. The settling times of a droplet cloud and its suspended viral dose are significantly affected by the droplet composition. The aerosol (defined as droplets smaller than 5 μm) resulting from 30 s of continued speech has O(1 h) settling time and a viable viral dose an order-of-magnitude higher than in a short cough. The time-of-flight to reach 2 m is only a few seconds resulting in a viral dose above the minimum required for infection, implying that physical distancing in the absence of ventilation is not sufficient to provide safety for long exposure times. The suspended aerosol emitted by continuous speaking for 1 h in a poorly ventilated room gives 0.1–11% infection risk for initial viral loads of 108–1010 copies ml−ll, respectively, decreasing to 0.03–3% for 10 air changes per hour by ventilation. The present results provide quantitative estimates useful for the development of physical distancing and ventilation controls.
Date Issued
2021-01-20
Date Acceptance
2020-12-14
Citation
Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2021, 477 (2245)
ISSN
1364-5021
Publisher
The Royal Society
Journal / Book Title
Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
Volume
477
Issue
2245
Copyright Statement
© 2021 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
License URL
Subjects
01 Mathematical Sciences
02 Physical Sciences
09 Engineering
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN 20200584