Halving Global CO2 Emissions by 2050: Technologies and Costs
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
This study provides a whole-systems simulation on how to halve global CO2 emissions by 2050, compared to 2010, with an emphasis on technologies and costs, in order to avoid a dangerous increase in the global mean surface temperature by end the of this century. There still remains uncertainty as to how much a low-carbon energy system costs compared to a high-carbon system. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) show a large range of costs of mitigation towards the 2°C target, with up to an order of magnitude difference between the highest and lowest cost, depending on a number of factors including model structure, technology availability and costs, and the degree of feedback with the wider macro-economy. A simpler analysis potentially serves to highlight where costs fall and to what degree. Here we show that the additional cost of a low-carbon energy system is less than 1% of global GDP more than a system resulting from low mitigation effort. The proposed approach aligns with some previous IAMs and other projections discussed in the paper, whilst also providing a clearer and more detailed view of the world. Achieving this system by 2050, with CO2 emissions of about 15GtCO2, depends heavily on decarbonisation of the electricity sector to around 100gCO2/kWh, as well as on maximising energy efficiency potential across all sectors. This scenario would require a major mitigation effort in all the assessed world regions. However, in order to keep the global mean surface temperature increase below 1.5°C, it would be necessary to achieve net-zero emission by 2050, requiring a much further mitigation effort.
Date Issued
2021-03-04
Date Acceptance
2020-12-01
Citation
International Energy Journal, 2021, 21 (1), pp.147-158
ISSN
1513-718X
Publisher
Regional Energy Resources Information Center
Start Page
147
End Page
158
Journal / Book Title
International Energy Journal
Volume
21
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
Copyright, Regional Energy Resources Information Center (RERIC). All research articles published in the International Energy Journal are fully open access: immediately freely available to read, download and share provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
Sponsor
Natural Environment Research Council [2006-2012]
Identifier
http://www.rericjournal.ait.ac.th/index.php/reric/article/view/2385
Grant Number
NE/M021548/1 (Belmont)
Subjects
Climate Change
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
Thailand
Date Publish Online
2021-03-04