Stakeholder-driven multi-attribute analysis for energy project selection under uncertainty
File(s)2016.10.26.Manuscript_Resubmit.pdf (1.2 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Read, L
Madani, K
Mokhtari, S
Hanks, C
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
In practice, selecting an energy project for development requires balancing criteria and competing stakeholder priorities to identify the best alternative. Energy source selection can be modeled as multi-criteria decision-maker problems to provide quantitative support to reconcile technical, economic, environmental, social, and political factors with respect to the stakeholders' interests. Decision making among these complex interactions should also account for the uncertainty present in the input data. In response, this work develops a stochastic decision analysis framework to evaluate alternatives by involving stakeholders to identify both quantitative and qualitative selection criteria and performance metrics which carry uncertainties. The developed framework is illustrated using a case study from Fairbanks, Alaska, where decision makers and residents must decide on a new source of energy for heating and electricity. We approach this problem in a five step methodology: (1) engaging experts (role players) to develop criteria of project performance; (2) collecting a range of quantitative and qualitative input information to determine the performance of each proposed solution according to the selected criteria; (3) performing a Monte-Carlo analysis to capture uncertainties given in the inputs; (4) applying multi-criteria decision-making, social choice (voting), and fallback bargaining methods to account for three different levels of cooperation among the stakeholders; and (5) computing an aggregate performance index (API) score for each alternative based on its performance across criteria and cooperation levels. API scores communicate relative performance between alternatives. In this way, our methodology maps uncertainty from the input data to reflect risk in the decision and incorporates varying degrees of cooperation into the analysis to identify an optimal and practical alternative.
Date Issued
2016-11-12
Date Acceptance
2016-11-07
Citation
Energy, 2016, 119, pp.744-753
ISSN
0360-5442
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
744
End Page
753
Journal / Book Title
Energy
Volume
119
Copyright Statement
© 2016, Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Subjects
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Technology
Thermodynamics
Energy & Fuels
Decision making
Uncertainty
Multi-criteria
Alaska
MULTICRITERIA DECISION-MAKING
SUSTAINABLE ENERGY
METHODOLOGY
SYSTEMS
VIKOR
Energy
0913 Mechanical Engineering
0915 Interdisciplinary Engineering
Publication Status
Published