Spatiotemporal modelling and mapping of cervical cancer incidence among HIV positive women in South Africa: a nationwide study
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Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Background
Disparities in invasive cervical cancer (ICC) incidence exist globally, particularly in HIV positive women who are at elevated risk compared to HIV negative women. We aimed to determine the spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal incidence of ICC and the potential risk factors among HIV positive women in South Africa.
Methods
We included ICC cases in women diagnosed with HIV from the South African HIV cancer match study during 2004–2014. We used the Thembisa model, a mathematical model of the South African HIV epidemic to estimate women diagnosed with HIV per municipality, age group and calendar year. We fitted Bayesian hierarchical models, using a reparameterization of the Besag-York-Mollié to capture spatial autocorrelation, to estimate the spatiotemporal distribution of ICC incidence among women diagnosed with HIV. We also examined the association of deprivation, access to health (using the number of health facilities per municipality) and urbanicity with ICC incidence. We corrected our estimates to account for ICC case underascertainment, missing data and data errors.
Results
We included 17,821 ICC cases and demonstrated a decreasing trend in ICC incidence, from 306 to 312 in 2004 and from 160 to 191 in 2014 per 100,000 person-years across all municipalities and corrections. The spatial relative rate (RR) ranged from 0.27 to 4.43 in the model without any covariates. In the model adjusting for covariates, the most affluent municipalities had a RR of 3.18 (95% Credible Interval 1.82, 5.57) compared to the least affluent ones, and municipalities with better access to health care had a RR of 1.52 (1.03, 2.27) compared to municipalities with worse access to health.
Conclusions
The results show an increased incidence of cervical cancer in affluent municipalities and in those with more health facilities. This is likely driven by better access to health care in more affluent areas. More efforts should be made to ensure equitable access to health services, including mitigating physical barriers, such as transportation to health centres and strengthening of screening programmes.
Disparities in invasive cervical cancer (ICC) incidence exist globally, particularly in HIV positive women who are at elevated risk compared to HIV negative women. We aimed to determine the spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal incidence of ICC and the potential risk factors among HIV positive women in South Africa.
Methods
We included ICC cases in women diagnosed with HIV from the South African HIV cancer match study during 2004–2014. We used the Thembisa model, a mathematical model of the South African HIV epidemic to estimate women diagnosed with HIV per municipality, age group and calendar year. We fitted Bayesian hierarchical models, using a reparameterization of the Besag-York-Mollié to capture spatial autocorrelation, to estimate the spatiotemporal distribution of ICC incidence among women diagnosed with HIV. We also examined the association of deprivation, access to health (using the number of health facilities per municipality) and urbanicity with ICC incidence. We corrected our estimates to account for ICC case underascertainment, missing data and data errors.
Results
We included 17,821 ICC cases and demonstrated a decreasing trend in ICC incidence, from 306 to 312 in 2004 and from 160 to 191 in 2014 per 100,000 person-years across all municipalities and corrections. The spatial relative rate (RR) ranged from 0.27 to 4.43 in the model without any covariates. In the model adjusting for covariates, the most affluent municipalities had a RR of 3.18 (95% Credible Interval 1.82, 5.57) compared to the least affluent ones, and municipalities with better access to health care had a RR of 1.52 (1.03, 2.27) compared to municipalities with worse access to health.
Conclusions
The results show an increased incidence of cervical cancer in affluent municipalities and in those with more health facilities. This is likely driven by better access to health care in more affluent areas. More efforts should be made to ensure equitable access to health services, including mitigating physical barriers, such as transportation to health centres and strengthening of screening programmes.
Date Issued
2021-06-29
Date Acceptance
2021-06-15
Citation
International Journal of Health Geographics, 2021, 20 (30), pp.1-12
ISSN
1476-072X
Publisher
BioMed Central
Start Page
1
End Page
12
Journal / Book Title
International Journal of Health Geographics
Volume
20
Issue
30
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2021. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing,
adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and
the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material
in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material
is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the
permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativeco
mmons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/
zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.
adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and
the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material
in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material
is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the
permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativeco
mmons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/
zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.
License URL
Sponsor
Medical Research Council
Identifier
https://ij-healthgeographics.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12942-021-00283-z
Grant Number
P82059
Subjects
Public Health
1117 Public Health and Health Services
1604 Human Geography
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-06-29