Models and forecasts of credit card balance
File(s)Hon_Bellotti_2016.pdf (195.43 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Hon, PS
Bellotti, T
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Credit card balance is an important factor in retail finance. In this article we consider multivariate models of credit card balance and use a real dataset of credit card data to test the forecasting performance of the models. Several models are considered in a cross-sectional regression context: ordinary least squares, two-stage and mixture regression. After that, we take advantage of the time series structure of the data and model credit card balance using a random effects panel model. The most important predictor variable is previous lagged balance, but other application and behavioural variables are also found to be important. Finally, we present an investigation of forecast accuracy on credit card balance 12 months ahead using each of the proposed models. The panel model is found to be the best model for forecasting credit card balance in terms of mean absolute error (MAE) and the two-stage regression model performs best in terms of root mean squared error (RMSE).
Date Issued
2014-12-19
Date Acceptance
2014-12-09
Citation
European Journal of Operational Research, 2014, 249 (2), pp.498-505
ISSN
1872-6860
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
498
End Page
505
Journal / Book Title
European Journal of Operational Research
Volume
249
Issue
2
Copyright Statement
© 2016, Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000366951100011&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Social Sciences
Science & Technology
Technology
Management
Operations Research & Management Science
Business & Economics
Credit cards
Balance estimation
Mixture model
Panel model
REGRESSIONS
MIXTURES
Operations Research
MD Multidisciplinary
Publication Status
Published