Optimizing social and economic activity while containing SARS-CoV-2 transmission using DAEDALUS
File(s)NATCOMPUTSCI-21-0218 DAEDALUS supplement.pdf (1.19 MB) DAEDALUS_deposited version.pdf (3.04 MB)
Supporting information
Accepted version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
To study the trade-off between economic, social and health outcomes in the management of a pandemic, DAEDALUS integrates a dynamic epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with a multi-sector economic model, reflecting sectoral heterogeneity in transmission and complex supply chains. The model identifies mitigation strategies that optimize economic production while constraining infections so that hospital capacity is not exceeded but allowing essential services, including much of the education sector, to remain active. The model differentiates closures by economic sector, keeping those sectors open that contribute little to transmission but much to economic output and those that produce essential services as intermediate or final consumption products. In an illustrative application to 63 sectors in the United Kingdom, the model achieves an economic gain of between £161 billion (24%) and £193 billion (29%) compared to a blanket lockdown of non-essential activities over six months. Although it has been designed for SARS-CoV-2, DAEDALUS is sufficiently flexible to be applicable to pandemics with different epidemiological characteristics.
Date Issued
2022-04-01
Date Acceptance
2022-03-03
Citation
Nature Computational Science, 2022, 2, pp.223-233
ISSN
2662-8457
Publisher
Nature Research
Start Page
223
End Page
233
Journal / Book Title
Nature Computational Science
Volume
2
Copyright Statement
© 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature America, Inc.
Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
National Institute for Health Research
Abdul Latif Jameel Foundation
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Grant Number
MR/R015600/1
NIHR200908
EP/V520354/1
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2022-04-28