Modelling the thermal dynamics of buildings: a latent force model based approach
OA Location
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Minimizing the energy consumed on heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems of residential buildings, without impacting occupants? comfort has been highlighted as an important artificial intelligence (AI) challenge. Typically, approaches that seek to address this challenge use a model that captures the thermal dynamics within a building, also referred to as a thermal model. In this paper, we introduce a novel thermal model, which we refer to as a latent force thermal model of the thermal dynamics of a building or LFM-TM. Our model is derived from an existing grey-box thermal model, which is augmented with an extra term referred to as the learned residual. This term is capable of modelling the effect of any a priori unknown additional dynamic, which if not captured, appears as structure in a thermal models residual (the error induced by the model). More importantly, the learned residual can also capture the effects of physical elements such as a building?s envelope or the lags in a heating system, leading to a significant reduction in complexity compared to existing models. We evaluate the performance of LFM-TM on two independent data sources: the FlexHouse data, which was previously used for evaluating the efficacy of existing grey-box models [Bacher and Madsen 2011], and heating data logged within homes located on University of Southampton campus. On both datasets, we show that our approach outperforms existing models in its ability to accurately fit the observed data, generate accurate day-ahead internal temperature predictions and explain a large amount of the variability in the future observations.
Date Issued
2015-04
Citation
ACM Transactions on Intelligent Systems and Technology, 2015, 6, pp.7:1-7:27
Start Page
7:1
End Page
7:27
Journal / Book Title
ACM Transactions on Intelligent Systems and Technology
Volume
6
Identifier
http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/362898/
Subjects
Science & Technology
Technology
Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence
Computer Science, Information Systems
Computer Science
Experimentation
Measurement
Performance
Theory
Validation
Artificial intelligence
sustainability
HVAC
smart homes
residential buildings
energy savings
thermal models
latent force models
PREDICTIVE CONTROL
ARTIFICIAL-INTELLIGENCE
HEAT DYNAMICS
SELECTION
ENERGY
Article Number
1