Pointwise uncertainty quantification for sparse variational Gaussian process regression with a Brownian motion prior
File(s)1434_pointwise_uncertainty_quantifi-1.pdf (392.34 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Travis, Luke
Ray, Kolyan
Type
Conference Paper
Abstract
We study pointwise estimation and uncertainty quantification for a sparse variational Gaussian process method with eigenvector inducing variables. For a rescaled
Brownian motion prior, we derive theoretical guarantees and limitations for the frequentist size and coverage of pointwise credible sets. For sufficiently many inducing variables, we precisely characterize the asymptotic frequentist coverage, deducing when credible sets from this variational method are conservative and when overconfident/misleading. We numerically illustrate the applicability of our results and discuss connections with other common Gaussian process priors.
Brownian motion prior, we derive theoretical guarantees and limitations for the frequentist size and coverage of pointwise credible sets. For sufficiently many inducing variables, we precisely characterize the asymptotic frequentist coverage, deducing when credible sets from this variational method are conservative and when overconfident/misleading. We numerically illustrate the applicability of our results and discuss connections with other common Gaussian process priors.
Date Issued
2023-12
Date Acceptance
2023-09-21
Citation
Advances in neural information processing systems, 2023, pp.7419-7442
ISSN
1049-5258
Publisher
ACM
Start Page
7419
End Page
7442
Journal / Book Title
Advances in neural information processing systems
Copyright Statement
© 2023 Neural Information Processing Systems Foundation, Inc. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here for your personal use. Not for redistribution. The definitive Version of Record was published in NIPS '23: Proceedings of the 37th International Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems, http://dx.doi.org/10.5555/3666122.3666448
Identifier
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/3666122.3666448
Source
37th Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS 2023)
Publication Status
Published
Start Date
2023-12-10
Finish Date
2023-12-16
Coverage Spatial
New Orleans, LA, USA
Date Publish Online
2024-05-30