Impact of myopic decision-making and disruptive events in power systems planning
File(s)ST_paper_NF_clean_highlighted.pdf (272.47 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Heuberger, Clara Franziska
Staffell, Iain
Shah, Nilay
Mac Dowell, Niall
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The delayed deployment of low-carbon energy technologies is impeding energy system decarbonization. The continuing debate about the cost-competitiveness of low-carbon technologies has led to a strategy of waiting for a ‘unicorn technology’ to appear. Here, we show that myopic strategies that rely on the eventual manifestation of a unicorn technology result in either an oversized and underutilized power system when decarbonization objectives are achieved, or one that is far from being decarbonized, even if the unicorn technology becomes available. Under perfect foresight, disruptive technology innovation can reduce total system cost by 13%. However, a strategy of waiting for a unicorn technology that never appears could result in 61% higher cumulative total system cost by mid-century compared to deploying currently available low-carbon technologies early on.
Date Issued
2018-05-21
Date Acceptance
2018-04-19
Citation
Nature Energy, 2018, 3, pp.634-640
ISSN
1520-8524
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group
Start Page
634
End Page
640
Journal / Book Title
Nature Energy
Volume
3
Copyright Statement
© 2018 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved.
Sponsor
IEAGHG t/a IEA Environmental Projects Ltd
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (E
Grant Number
IEA/CON/14/228
UKCCSRC 2017 Partner
Subjects
Science & Technology
Technology
Energy & Fuels
Materials Science, Multidisciplinary
Materials Science
SMALL MODULAR REACTORS
ELECTRICITY
TECHNOLOGY
COST
REANALYSIS
OUTPUT
WATER
WIND
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2018-05-21