New approaches to robust inference on market (non-)efficiency, volatility clustering and nonlinear dependence
File(s)Robust_correlation__3__Submitted_Revision.pdf (1.38 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Ibragimov, Rustam
Pedersen, Rasmus Søndergaard
Skrobotov, Anton
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We present novel, robust methods for inference on market (non-)efficiency, volatility clustering, and nonlinear dependence in financial return series. In contrast to existing methodology, our proposed methods are robust against nonlinear dynamics and tail-heaviness of returns. Specifically, our methods only rely on return processes being stationary and weakly dependent (mixing) with finite moments of a suitable order. This includes robustness against power-law distributions associated with nonlinear dynamic models such as GARCH and stochastic volatility. The methods are easy to implement and perform well in realistic settings. We revisit a recent study by Baltussen, van Bekkum, and Da (2019, J. Financ. Econ., 132, 26–48) on autocorrelation in major stock indexes. Using our robust methods, we document that the evidence of the presence of negative autocorrelation is weaker, compared with the conclusions of the original study.
Date Issued
2024-09-01
Date Acceptance
2023-07-18
Citation
Journal of Financial Econometrics, 2024, 22 (4), pp.1075-1097
ISSN
1479-8409
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Start Page
1075
End Page
1097
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Financial Econometrics
Volume
22
Issue
4
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com
This article is published and distributed under the terms of the Oxford University Press, Standard Journals Publication Model (https://academic.oup.com/pages/standard-publication-reuse-rights). This is a pre-copy-editing, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in Journal of Financial Econometrics following peer review. The definitive publisher-authenticated version Rustam Ibragimov and others, New Approaches to Robust Inference on Market (Non-)efficiency, Volatility Clustering and Nonlinear Dependence, Journal of Financial Econometrics, 2023 is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1093/jjfinec/nbad020
This article is published and distributed under the terms of the Oxford University Press, Standard Journals Publication Model (https://academic.oup.com/pages/standard-publication-reuse-rights). This is a pre-copy-editing, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in Journal of Financial Econometrics following peer review. The definitive publisher-authenticated version Rustam Ibragimov and others, New Approaches to Robust Inference on Market (Non-)efficiency, Volatility Clustering and Nonlinear Dependence, Journal of Financial Econometrics, 2023 is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1093/jjfinec/nbad020
Identifier
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jjfinec/nbad020
Publication Status
Published
Rights Embargo Date
2025-08-09
Date Publish Online
2023-08-08