Faster Detection of Poliomyelitis Outbreaks to Support Polio Eradication
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Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
As the global eradication of poliomyelitis approaches the final stages, prompt detection of new outbreaks is critical to enable a fast and effective outbreak response. Surveillance relies on reporting of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) cases and laboratory confirmation through isolation of poliovirus from stool. However, delayed sample collection and testing can delay outbreak detection. We investigated whether weekly testing for clusters of AFP by location and time, using the Kulldorff scan statistic, could provide an early warning for outbreaks in 20 countries. A mixed-effects regression model was used to predict background rates of nonpolio AFP at the district level. In Tajikistan and Congo, testing for AFP clusters would have resulted in an outbreak warning 39 and 11 days, respectively, before official confirmation of large outbreaks. This method has relatively high specificity and could be integrated into the current polio information system to support rapid outbreak response activities.
Date Issued
2016-03-01
Date Acceptance
2015-11-16
Citation
Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2016, 22 (3), pp.449-456
ISSN
1080-6040
Publisher
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Start Page
449
End Page
456
Journal / Book Title
Emerging Infectious Diseases
Volume
22
Issue
3
Copyright Statement
All materials published in Emerging Infectious Diseases are in the public domain and can be used without permission as long as proper citation is used. Blake IM, Chenoweth P, Okayasu H, Donnelly CA, Aylward RB, Grassly NC. Faster detection of poliomyelitis outbreaks to support polio eradication. Emerg Infect Dis. 2016 Mar [date cited]. http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2203.151394
Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Grant Number
G0600719B
OPP1099374
Subjects
Microbiology
1108 Medical Microbiology
1117 Public Health And Health Services
1103 Clinical Sciences
Publication Status
Published