Combining experts’ causal judgments
File(s)mainpage-final.pdf (417.83 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Alrajeh, Dalal
chockler, Hana
Halpern, Joe
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Consider a policymaker who wants to decide which intervention to perform in order to change a currently undesirable situation. The policymaker has at her disposal a team of experts, each with their own understanding of the causal dependencies between different factors contributing to the outcome. The policymaker has varying degrees of confidence in the experts' opinions. She wants to combine their opinions in order to decide on the most effective intervention. We formally define the notion of an effective intervention, and then consider how experts' causal judgments can be combined in order to determine the most effective intervention. We define a notion of two causal models being compatible, and show how compatible causal models can be merged. We then use it as the basis for combining experts' causal judgments. We also provide a definition of decomposition for causal models to cater for cases when models are incompatible. We illustrate our approach on a number of real-life examples.
Date Issued
2020-11-01
Date Acceptance
2020-07-02
Citation
Artificial Intelligence, 2020, 288 (10), pp.1-22
ISSN
0004-3702
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
1
End Page
22
Journal / Book Title
Artificial Intelligence
Volume
288
Issue
10
Copyright Statement
© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Identifier
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0004370220301065?via%3Dihub
Subjects
Artificial Intelligence & Image Processing
0801 Artificial Intelligence and Image Processing
0802 Computation Theory and Mathematics
1702 Cognitive Sciences
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN 103355
Date Publish Online
2020-07-13