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  5. Short-term traffic prediction with deep neural networks and adaptive transfer learning
 
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Short-term traffic prediction with deep neural networks and adaptive transfer learning
File(s)
ITSC20_0269_MS (1).pdf (993.26 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Li, Junyi
Guo, Fangce
Wang, Yibing
Zhang, Lihui
Na, Xiaoxiang
more
Type
Conference Paper
Abstract
A key problem in short-term traffic prediction is the prevailing data missing scenarios across the entire traffic network. To address this challenge, a transfer learning framework is currently used in the literature, which could improve the prediction accuracy on the target link that suffers severe data missing problems by using information from source links with sufficient historical data. However, one of the limitations in these transfer-learning based models is their high dependency on the consistency between datasets and the complex data selection process, which brings heavy computation burden and human efforts. In this paper, we propose an adaptive transfer learning method in short-term traffic flow prediction model to alleviate the complex data selection process. Specifically, a self-adaptive neural network with a novel domain adaptation loss is developed. The domain adaptation loss is able to calculate the distance between the source data and the corresponding target data in each training batch, which can help the network to adaptively filter inconsistent source data and learn target link related information in each training batch. The Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) measurement, which has been fully validated and applied in transfer learning research, is used in combination with the Gaussian kernel to measure the distance between datasets in each training batch. A series of experiments are designed and conducted using 15-minute interval traffic flow data from the Highways England, UK. The results have demonstrated that the proposed adaptive transfer learning method is less affected by the inconsistency between datasets and provides more accurate short-term traffic flow prediction.
Date Issued
2020-12-24
Date Acceptance
2020-05-07
Citation
2020 IEEE 23rd International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC), 2020, pp.1-6
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/80117
DOI
https://www.dx.doi.org/10.1109/ITSC45102.2020.9294409
Publisher
IEEE
Start Page
1
End Page
6
Journal / Book Title
2020 IEEE 23rd International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC)
Copyright Statement
© 2020 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.
Source
23rd International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC)
Publication Status
Published
Start Date
2020-09-20
Finish Date
2020-09-23
Coverage Spatial
Virtual Conference
Date Publish Online
2020-12-24
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