Ecological niche modelling does not support climatically-driven dinosaur diversity decline before the Cretaceous/Paleogene mass extinction
File(s)s41467-019-08997-2.pdf (7.09 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
In the lead-up to the Cretaceous/Paleogene mass extinction, dinosaur diversity is argued to have been either in long-term decline, or thriving until their sudden demise. The latest Cretaceous (Campanian–Maastrichtian [83–66 Ma]) of North America provides the best record to address this debate, but even here diversity reconstructions are biased by uneven sampling. Here we combine fossil occurrences with climatic and environmental modelling to quantify latest Cretaceous North American dinosaur habitat. Ecological niche modelling shows a Campanian-to-Maastrichtian habitability decrease in areas with present-day rock-outcrop. However, a continent-wide projection demonstrates habitat stability, or even a Campanian-to-Maastrichtian increase, that is not preserved. This reduction of the spatial sampling window resulted from formation of the proto-Rocky Mountains and sea-level regression. We suggest that Maastrichtian North American dinosaur diversity is therefore likely to be underestimated, with the apparent decline a product of sampling bias, and not due to a climatically-driven decrease in habitability as previously hypothesised.
Date Issued
2019-03-06
Date Acceptance
2019-02-13
Citation
Nature Communications, 2019, 10 (1), pp.1-14
ISSN
2041-1723
Publisher
Nature Research
Start Page
1
End Page
14
Journal / Book Title
Nature Communications
Volume
10
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2019. This article is licensed under a Creative CommonsAttribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing,adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you giveappropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the CreativeCommons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third partymaterial in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unlessindicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in thearticle’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutoryregulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly fromthe copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visithttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Identifier
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08997-2
Subjects
Science & Technology
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Science & Technology - Other Topics
TAXONOMIC DIVERSITY
LATE ORDOVICIAN
RELATIVE ROLES
FOSSIL RECORD
SEA-LEVEL
CLIMATE
CONSERVATISM
SIZE
CONSTRAINTS
TOPOGRAPHY
Animals
Biodiversity
Climate Change
Dinosaurs
Extinction, Biological
Fossils
Models, Biological
North America
Selection Bias
Spatio-Temporal Analysis
Animals
Dinosaurs
Biodiversity
Selection Bias
Models, Biological
Fossils
North America
Extinction, Biological
Climate Change
Spatio-Temporal Analysis
Publication Status
Published online
Article Number
1091
Date Publish Online
2019-03-06