Best practices for estimating and reporting epidemiological delay distributions of infectious diseases
File(s)journal.pcbi.1012520.pdf (1.5 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Epidemiological delays are key quantities that inform public health policy and clinical practice. They are used as inputs for mathematical and statistical models, which in turn can guide control strategies. In recent work, we found that censoring, right truncation, and dynamical bias were rarely addressed correctly when estimating delays and that these biases were large enough to have knock-on impacts across a large number of use cases. Here, we formulate a checklist of best practices for estimating and reporting epidemiological delays. We also provide a flowchart to guide practitioners based on their data. Our examples are focused on the incubation period and serial interval due to their importance in outbreak response and modeling, but our recommendations are applicable to other delays. The recommendations, which are based on the literature and our experience estimating epidemiological delay distributions during outbreak responses, can help improve the robustness and utility of reported estimates and provide guidance for the evaluation of estimates for downstream use in transmission models or other analyses.
Editor(s)
Scarpino, Samuel V
Date Issued
2024-10-28
Date Acceptance
2024-10-01
Citation
PLoS Computational Biology, 2024, 20 (10)
ISSN
1553-734X
Publisher
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Journal / Book Title
PLoS Computational Biology
Volume
20
Issue
10
Copyright Statement
This is an open access article, free of all
copyright, and may be freely reproduced,
distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or
otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose.
The work is made available under the Creative
Commons CC0 public domain dedication.
copyright, and may be freely reproduced,
distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or
otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose.
The work is made available under the Creative
Commons CC0 public domain dedication.
Identifier
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012520
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
e1012520
Date Publish Online
2024-10-28