Aviation sector decarbonisation as a case of deep uncertainty: the need for an integrative, exploratory, and interdisciplinary approach
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Anthony, Belcher
Workman, mark
Andy, Jefferson
Ostrovnaya, Anastasiya
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Global demand for aviation is expected to double by 2050. This is set against the need to cut aviation CO2 emissions from 1 GtCO2 pa today to net zero over the same period. Using the UK aviation market as a proxy for the global market, we apply a Robust Decision Making (RDM) to develop integrative insights within a single analytical paradigm than discrete orthodox decision support analysis.
This approach is justified based on a critical examination of the sector characteristics and the divergent short-term motivations of aviation actors as a case of deep uncertainty. RDM explicitly embraces deep uncertainty across a number of metrics which allows multiple values and diversity among stakeholders and viewpoints, and in which modelling can exist in an iterative exchange with policy development rather than separate from it. This approach has particularly highlighted the critical significance of asset stranding, the oligopolistic structure in aerospace manufacturers and fuel suppliers, alongside the monopsonies in airlines, as current barriers to progress within a single integrative analytical paradigm.
This contribution highlights the need for the application of exploratory and interdisciplinary approaches to aviation decarbonisation transitions analysis to better inform aviation sector net zero strategies. It can improve the interdisciplinarity of analysis across technology, policy, and finance, and explore the extent of uncertainty so that robust strategies can be designed as well as generate insight into systematic upstream requirements.
This approach is justified based on a critical examination of the sector characteristics and the divergent short-term motivations of aviation actors as a case of deep uncertainty. RDM explicitly embraces deep uncertainty across a number of metrics which allows multiple values and diversity among stakeholders and viewpoints, and in which modelling can exist in an iterative exchange with policy development rather than separate from it. This approach has particularly highlighted the critical significance of asset stranding, the oligopolistic structure in aerospace manufacturers and fuel suppliers, alongside the monopsonies in airlines, as current barriers to progress within a single integrative analytical paradigm.
This contribution highlights the need for the application of exploratory and interdisciplinary approaches to aviation decarbonisation transitions analysis to better inform aviation sector net zero strategies. It can improve the interdisciplinarity of analysis across technology, policy, and finance, and explore the extent of uncertainty so that robust strategies can be designed as well as generate insight into systematic upstream requirements.
Date Issued
2025-09-01
Date Acceptance
2025-05-28
Citation
Energy Research & Social Science, 2025, 127
ISSN
2214-6326
Publisher
Elsevier
Journal / Book Title
Energy Research & Social Science
Volume
127
Copyright Statement
© 2025 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).
License URL
Identifier
10.1016/j.erss.2025.104158
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
104158
Date Publish Online
2025-07-03