Reentry and disintegration dynamics of space debris tracked using seismic data
Author(s)
Fernando, Benjamin
Charalambous, Constantinos
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The risks posed by reentering space debris continue to grow as Earth’s orbit becomes more crowded. Currently, responses to uncontrolled reentries are hampered by an inability to reliably track spacecraft once they are burning up within the atmosphere, meaning that debris fallout locations are poorly predicted. We have demonstrated a minimum-gradient fit seismic inversion methodology that allows in-atmosphere debris trajectory, speed, altitude, descent angle, size, and fragmentation pattern to be discerned relatively quickly. We tested this methodology on open-source data from the 2024 reentry of Shenzhou-15, deriving a location significantly south of the predicted track. Observations of cascading, multiplicative fragmentation offer insight into debris disintegration dynamics, with clear implications for space situational awareness and debris hazard mitigation.
Date Issued
2026-01-22
Date Acceptance
2025-11-04
Citation
Science, 2026, 391 (6783), pp.412-416
ISSN
0036-8075
Publisher
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Start Page
412
End Page
416
Journal / Book Title
Science
Volume
391
Issue
6783
Copyright Statement
Copyright © 2026 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. This is the author’s accepted manuscript made available under a CC-BY licence in accordance with Imperial’s Research Publications Open Access policy (www.imperial.ac.uk/oa-policy)
License URL
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/41570146
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
United States
Date Publish Online
2026-01-22