How mathematical modelling can inform outbreak response vaccination
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Mathematical models are established tools to assist in outbreak response. They help characterise complex patterns in disease spread, simulate control options to assist public health authorities in decision-making, and longer-term operational and financial planning. In the context of vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs), vaccines are one of the most-cost effective outbreak response interventions, with the potential to avert significant morbidity and mortality through timely delivery. Models can contribute to the design of vaccine response by investigating the importance of timeliness, identifying high-risk areas, prioritising the use of limited vaccine supply, highlighting surveillance gaps and reporting, and determining the short- and long-term benefits. In this review, we examine how models have been used to inform vaccine response for 10 VPDs, and provide additional insights into the challenges of outbreak response modelling, such as data gaps, key vaccine-specific considerations, and communication between modellers and stakeholders. We illustrate that while models are key to policy-oriented outbreak vaccine response, they can only be as good as the surveillance data that inform them.
Date Issued
2024-12-01
Date Acceptance
2024-11-18
Citation
BMC Infectious Diseases, 2024, 24
ISSN
1471-2334
Publisher
BMC
Journal / Book Title
BMC Infectious Diseases
Volume
24
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2024. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
License URL
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/39617902
PII: 10.1186/s12879-024-10243-0
Subjects
CHALLENGES
COVID-19
EBOLA VACCINE
EPIDEMIC
Immunisation
Impact
Infectious Diseases
INFECTIOUS-DISEASE OUTBREAKS
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Mathematical modelling
MENINGOCOCCAL MENINGITIS
Outbreak
POLICY
RING VACCINATION
Science & Technology
SPREAD
Vaccination
Vaccine
YELLOW-FEVER VACCINE
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
England
Article Number
1371
Date Publish Online
2024-12-01