NCD Countdown 2030: Efficient pathways and strategic investments to accelerate progress towards the Sustainable Development Goal target in low- and middle-income countries
File(s)NCD countdown appendix 18 Oct.pdf (1.72 MB)
Supporting information
Author(s)
NCD Countdown 2030 collaborators
Ezzati, Majid
Chalkidou, Kalipso
Gheorghe, Adrian
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
As of 2019, most countries were off track to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal 3.4 target (SDG 3.4), which calls for a one-third reduction in premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) between 2015 and 2030. In this Health Policy paper, we synthesise a range of evidence related to interventions that can reduce premature mortality from the major NCDs over the next decade and are feasible to implement in countries at all levels of income. Our recommendations are intended as generic guidance to help countries get back on track for SDG 3.4; country-level applications would require additional analyses and consideration of the local context. Protecting current investments and scaling up these interventions is especially crucial in the context of COVID-19-related health system disruptions. We illustrate how cost-effectiveness data and other information can be used to define locally tailored packages of interventions to accelerate rates of decline in NCD mortality across 123 low- and middle-income countries. Under realistic implementation constraints, the majority of countries could achieve the NCD target, or at least get very close to it, using some combination of these interventions; the greatest gains would be for cardiovascular disease mortality. Implementing the most efficient package of interventions in each world region would require, on average, an additional US$18 billion annually over 2023-2030; this investment could avert 39 million deaths and generate an average net economic benefit of US$2.7 trillion, or US$390 per capita. While specific clinical intervention pathways would vary across countries and regions, policies to reduce behavioural risks like tobacco smoking, harmful use of alcohol, and excess sodium intake would be relevant in nearly every country, accounting for nearly two-thirds of the health gains of any locally-tailored NCD package. By 2030, ministries of health would need to be devoting about 20% of their budgets to high-priority NCD interventions. Our report concludes with a discussion of financing and health system implementation considerations and reflections on the NCD agenda beyond the 3.4 target and beyond the SDG period.
Date Issued
2022-03-26
Date Acceptance
2021-10-19
Citation
The Lancet, 2022, 399 (10331), pp.1266-1278
ISSN
0140-6736
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
1266
End Page
1278
Journal / Book Title
The Lancet
Volume
399
Issue
10331
Copyright Statement
© YEAR Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Medicine, General & Internal
General & Internal Medicine
DISEASE-CONTROL-PRIORITIES
UNIVERSAL HEALTH COVERAGE
KEY MESSAGES
NONCOMMUNICABLE DISEASES
COST-EFFECTIVENESS
GLOBAL HEALTH
CANCER
IMPLEMENTATION
INTERVENTIONS
INTEGRATION
COVID-19
Developing Countries
Global Health
Humans
Noncommunicable Diseases
Sustainable Development
General & Internal Medicine
11 Medical and Health Sciences
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2022-03-24